花旗银行认为以色列面临评级进一步下调的风险

以色列Globes网站2024年8月21日文章：花旗银行认为以色列面临评级进一步下调的风险。（原文作者：Aharon Katz）

花旗银行对以色列经济形势进行了分析，认为以色列面临信用评级进一步下调的风险，特别是穆迪对以色列的评级。

报告指出，地缘政治风险环境多变，以色列的信用评级是不确定的，因为市场认为该地区的冲突不会结束。同时，花旗银行预测以色列今年的经济增长率为1.6%，明年将反弹至4.9%，但财政赤字的前景更为严峻，财政赤字占国内生产总值的比例将超过政府设定的目标，达到7.6%。花旗银行对政府控制财政赤字的意愿表示怀疑，认为这是导致一系列评级下调的原因。

原文如下：

Citi sees Israel at risk of further rating downgrades

21 Aug, 2024 

Aharon Katz

The bank shares what it sees as the rating agencies' doubts about the government's willingness to bring the fiscal deficit under control.

The research department of US bank Citi has produced an analysis of Israel’s economic situation covering the credit rating downgrades by international rating agencies, the most recent being by Fitch last week. It concludes that further rating downgrades may be in the offing, particularly by Moody's.

The bank describes Israel’s credit rating as uncertain, since the markets see no end to the conflict in the region. "Israeli USD spreads have already departed from a neutral relative value versus single-A credits and the fluid geopolitical risk environment makes it very difficult to forecast when the next point of ‘ratings repricing’ might happen," the report summary states. The spread between dollar denominated Israel government bonds and their US equivalents is almost 200 basis points.

Citi’s forecast for the Israeli economy is similar to those in Israel and internationally. It sees economic growth of 1.6% this year, with a rebound to 4.9% next year. Only yesterday, US investment bank JP Morgan published a forecast of just 1.4% growth for the Israeli economy this year.

The outlook for the fiscal deficit is more severe. Citi sees the deficit as proportion of GDP exceeding the Ministry of Finance’s 6.6% target, and reaching 7.6%. Citi says that its forecast stems from its skepticism about the government’s willingness to raise taxes or control its spending, which amounts to sharp criticism of the government. "In our view, what drove the series of downgrades are doubts about the country’s ability and willingness to repair its balance sheet after a shock in the way it has succeeded to do so in the past," Citi’s report states, and continues: "We concur with these assessments: in our base case, the debt/GDP ratio should start declining again, but it is not hard to envision a scenario in which it does not. In terms of further rating actions, we think the Moody’s rating looks most at risk."

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